tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Fairbanks via Seattle: arrives on time 67%

  1. 13:01 ORD → 15:42 SEA
    AS 579 · Alaska · 4h 41m · 86% on time, 1.9% cancelled
  2. 2h 14m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:56 SEA → 20:46 FAI
    AS 284 · Alaska · 3h 50m · 75% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 10h 45m, scheduled departure to arrival (Fairbanks is 3 h behind Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection92%The first flight arrived more than 89 minutes late on 8% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 14m layover.
Arrives on time67%First flight not cancelled (1.9% are) × connection made (92%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (75%).
Total trip10h 45mORD 13:01 to FAI 20:46, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.