tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Tucson via Seattle: arrives on time 78%

  1. 13:01 ORD → 15:42 SEA
    AS 579 · Alaska · 4h 41m · 86% on time, 1.9% cancelled
  2. 2h 03m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:45 SEA → 21:05 TUS
    AS 3225 · Alaska, flown by SkyWest · 3h 20m · 88% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 10h 04m, scheduled departure to arrival (Tucson is 2 h behind Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection90%The first flight arrived more than 78 minutes late on 10% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 03m layover.
Arrives on time78%First flight not cancelled (1.9% are) × connection made (90%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (88%).
Total trip10h 04mORD 13:01 to TUS 21:05, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.