tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Eugene via Seattle: arrives on time 52%

  1. 18:42 ORD → 21:34 SEA
    AS 583 · Alaska · 4h 52m · 41% on time, 8.6% cancelled
  2. 1h 15m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:49 SEA → 23:59 EUG
    AS 2047 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 1h 10m · 90% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 17m, scheduled departure to arrival (Eugene is 2 h behind Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 35 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection62%The first flight arrived more than 30 minutes late on 38% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 15m layover.
Arrives on time52%First flight not cancelled (8.6% are) × connection made (62%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (90%).
Total trip7h 17mORD 18:42 to EUG 23:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.