tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Oakland via Seattle: arrives on time 52%

  1. 08:02 ORD → 10:37 SEA
    AS 587 · Alaska · 4h 35m · 64% on time, 0.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 04m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 11:41 SEA → 13:59 OAK
    AS 1328 · Alaska · 2h 18m · 73% on time, 0.9% cancelled

Total trip 7h 57m, scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 2 h behind Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection72%The first flight arrived more than 19 minutes late on 28% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 04m layover.
Arrives on time52%First flight not cancelled (0.4% are) × connection made (72%) × second flight not cancelled (0.9% are) and within 15 minutes (73%).
Total trip7h 57mORD 08:02 to OAK 13:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.