tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Anchorage via Seattle: arrives on time 48%

  1. 08:02 ORD → 10:37 SEA
    AS 587 · Alaska · 4h 35m · 64% on time, 0.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 02m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 11:39 SEA → 14:27 ANC
    AS 83 · Alaska · 3h 48m · 72% on time, 1.0% cancelled

Total trip 9h 25m, scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 3 h behind Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection68%The first flight arrived more than 17 minutes late on 32% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 02m layover.
Arrives on time48%First flight not cancelled (0.4% are) × connection made (68%) × second flight not cancelled (1.0% are) and within 15 minutes (72%).
Total trip9h 25mORD 08:02 to ANC 14:27, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.