tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Reno → Chicago via Seattle: arrives on time 59%

  1. 14:46 RNO → 16:43 SEA
    AS 601 · Alaska · 1h 57m · 72% on time, 1.2% cancelled
  2. 1h 05m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:48 SEA → 23:59 ORD
    AS 538 · Alaska · 4h 11m · 80% on time, 0.9% cancelled

Total trip 7h 13m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Reno). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection75%The first flight arrived more than 20 minutes late on 25% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 05m layover.
Arrives on time59%First flight not cancelled (1.2% are) × connection made (75%) × second flight not cancelled (0.9% are) and within 15 minutes (80%).
Total trip7h 13mRNO 14:46 to ORD 23:59, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.