tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Reno → San Jose via Seattle: arrives on time 57%

  1. 14:46 RNO → 16:43 SEA
    AS 601 · Alaska · 1h 57m · 72% on time, 1.2% cancelled
  2. 1h 02m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:45 SEA → 20:00 SJC
    AS 539 · Alaska · 2h 15m · 79% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 14m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection73%The first flight arrived more than 17 minutes late on 27% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 02m layover.
Arrives on time57%First flight not cancelled (1.2% are) × connection made (73%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (79%).
Total trip5h 14mRNO 14:46 to SJC 20:00, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.