tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Reno → San Francisco via Seattle: arrives on time 18%

  1. 14:46 RNO → 16:43 SEA
    AS 601 · Alaska · 1h 57m · 72% on time, 1.2% cancelled
  2. 53m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:36 SEA → 19:52 SFO
    AS 791 · Alaska · 2h 16m · 28% on time, 2.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 06m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection67%The first flight arrived more than 8 minutes late on 33% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 53m layover.
Arrives on time18%First flight not cancelled (1.2% are) × connection made (67%) × second flight not cancelled (2.0% are) and within 15 minutes (28%).
Total trip5h 06mRNO 14:46 to SFO 19:52, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.