tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Monterey via Seattle: arrives on time 71%

  1. 11:23 PHX → 14:30 SEA
    AS 603 · Alaska · 3h 07m · 89% on time, 0.9% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:20 SEA → 17:42 MRY
    AS 2129 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 2h 22m · 87% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 19m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection83%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 17% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time71%First flight not cancelled (0.9% are) × connection made (83%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (87%).
Total trip6h 19mPHX 11:23 to MRY 17:42, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.