tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Anchorage via Seattle: arrives on time 60%

  1. 18:53 PHX → 22:00 SEA
    AS 611 · Alaska · 3h 07m · 81% on time, 0.9% cancelled
  2. 59m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:59 SEA → 01:37 ANC +1 day
    AS 669 · Alaska · 3h 38m · 75% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 44m, scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 1 h behind Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection80%The first flight arrived more than 14 minutes late on 20% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 59m layover.
Arrives on time60%First flight not cancelled (0.9% are) × connection made (80%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (75%).
Total trip7h 44mPHX 18:53 to ANC 01:37, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.