tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Eugene via Seattle: arrives on time 62%

  1. 18:53 PHX → 22:00 SEA
    AS 611 · Alaska · 3h 07m · 81% on time, 0.9% cancelled
  2. 49m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:49 SEA → 23:59 EUG
    AS 2047 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 1h 10m · 90% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 06m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection69%The first flight arrived more than 4 minutes late on 31% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 49m layover.
Arrives on time62%First flight not cancelled (0.9% are) × connection made (69%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (90%).
Total trip5h 06mPHX 18:53 to EUG 23:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.