tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Seattle → Kailua/Kona via Honolulu: arrives on time 54%

  1. 10:55 SEA → 14:04 HNL
    AS 626 · Alaska · 6h 09m · 63% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 10m layover in Honolulu (HNL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:14 HNL → 16:01 KOA
    AS 1138 · Alaska · 47m · 76% on time, 1.4% cancelled

Total trip 8h 06m, scheduled departure to arrival (Kailua/Kona is 3 h behind Seattle). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection72%The first flight arrived more than 25 minutes late on 28% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 10m layover.
Arrives on time54%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (72%) × second flight not cancelled (1.4% are) and within 15 minutes (76%).
Total trip8h 06mSEA 10:55 to KOA 16:01, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.