tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Las Vegas → New York via Seattle: arrives on time 44%

  1. 10:28 LAS → 13:14 SEA
    AS 629 · Alaska · 2h 46m · 89% on time, 0.6% cancelled
  2. 48m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 14:02 SEA → 22:29 JFK
    AS 16 · Alaska · 5h 27m · 63% on time, 2.7% cancelled

Total trip 9h 01m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Las Vegas). Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection73%The first flight arrived more than 3 minutes late on 27% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 48m layover.
Arrives on time44%First flight not cancelled (0.6% are) × connection made (73%) × second flight not cancelled (2.7% are) and within 15 minutes (63%).
Total trip9h 01mLAS 10:28 to JFK 22:29, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.