tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Francisco → Chicago via Seattle: arrives on time 78%

  1. 12:27 SFO → 14:35 SEA
    AS 630 · Alaska · 2h 08m · 21% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 3h 13m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:48 SEA → 23:59 ORD
    AS 538 · Alaska · 4h 11m · 80% on time, 0.9% cancelled

Total trip 9h 32m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of San Francisco). Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection98%The first flight arrived more than 148 minutes late on 2% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 13m layover.
Arrives on time78%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (98%) × second flight not cancelled (0.9% are) and within 15 minutes (80%).
Total trip9h 32mSFO 12:27 to ORD 23:59, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.