tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Francisco → Redmond via Seattle: arrives on time 46%

  1. 12:27 SFO → 14:35 SEA
    AS 630 · Alaska · 2h 08m · 21% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 22m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:57 SEA → 17:09 RDM
    AS 3126 · Alaska, flown by SkyWest · 1h 12m · 72% on time, 1.9% cancelled

Total trip 4h 42m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection65%The first flight arrived more than 37 minutes late on 35% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 22m layover.
Arrives on time46%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (65%) × second flight not cancelled (1.9% are) and within 15 minutes (72%).
Total trip4h 42mSFO 12:27 to RDM 17:09, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.