tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Francisco → Bozeman via Seattle: arrives on time 15%

  1. 12:27 SFO → 14:35 SEA
    AS 630 · Alaska · 2h 08m · 21% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:35 SEA → 18:18 BZN
    AS 3498 · Alaska, flown by SkyWest · 1h 43m · 71% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 51m, scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 1 h ahead of San Francisco). Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection21%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 79% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time15%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (21%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (71%).
Total trip4h 51mSFO 12:27 to BZN 18:18, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.