tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Kailua/Kona via Seattle: arrives on time 75%

  1. 09:10 PHX → 12:17 SEA
    AS 637 · Alaska · 3h 07m · 86% on time, 0.5% cancelled
  2. 3h 42m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:59 SEA → 19:05 KOA
    AS 238 · Alaska · 6h 06m · 77% on time, 0.4% cancelled

Total trip 12h 55m, scheduled departure to arrival (Kailua/Kona is 3 h behind Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection99%The first flight arrived more than 177 minutes late on 1% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 42m layover.
Arrives on time75%First flight not cancelled (0.5% are) × connection made (99%) × second flight not cancelled (0.4% are) and within 15 minutes (77%).
Total trip12h 55mPHX 09:10 to KOA 19:05, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.