tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → St Louis via Seattle: arrives on time 63%

  1. 09:10 PHX → 12:17 SEA
    AS 637 · Alaska · 3h 07m · 86% on time, 0.5% cancelled
  2. 49m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 13:06 SEA → 18:57 STL
    AS 647 · Alaska · 3h 51m · 88% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 47m, scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection73%The first flight arrived more than 4 minutes late on 27% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 49m layover.
Arrives on time63%First flight not cancelled (0.5% are) × connection made (73%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (88%).
Total trip7h 47mPHX 09:10 to STL 18:57, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.