tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Monterey via Seattle: arrives on time 85%

  1. 09:10 PHX → 12:17 SEA
    AS 637 · Alaska · 3h 07m · 86% on time, 0.5% cancelled
  2. 3h 03m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:20 SEA → 17:42 MRY
    AS 2129 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 2h 22m · 87% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 8h 32m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection99%The first flight arrived more than 138 minutes late on 1% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 03m layover.
Arrives on time85%First flight not cancelled (0.5% are) × connection made (99%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (87%).
Total trip8h 32mPHX 09:10 to MRY 17:42, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.