tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Tucson → San Francisco via Seattle: arrives on time 21%

  1. 14:29 TUS → 17:44 SEA
    AS 641 · Alaska · 3h 15m · 81% on time, 0.6% cancelled
  2. 52m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:36 SEA → 20:48 SFO
    AS 619 · Alaska · 2h 12m · 29% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 19m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection71%The first flight arrived more than 7 minutes late on 29% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 52m layover.
Arrives on time21%First flight not cancelled (0.6% are) × connection made (71%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (29%).
Total trip6h 19mTUS 14:29 to SFO 20:48, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.