tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Kailua/Kona via Seattle: arrives on time 63%

  1. 07:20 PHX → 10:29 SEA
    AS 645 · Alaska · 3h 09m · 85% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 58m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 11:27 SEA → 14:35 KOA
    AS 204 · Alaska · 6h 08m · 76% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 10h 15m, scheduled departure to arrival (Kailua/Kona is 3 h behind Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection83%The first flight arrived more than 13 minutes late on 17% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 58m layover.
Arrives on time63%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (83%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (76%).
Total trip10h 15mPHX 07:20 to KOA 14:35, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.