tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Kahului via Seattle: arrives on time 79%

  1. 07:20 PHX → 10:29 SEA
    AS 645 · Alaska · 3h 09m · 85% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 3h 24m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 13:53 SEA → 16:59 OGG
    AS 223 · Alaska · 6h 06m · 80% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 12h 39m, scheduled departure to arrival (Kahului is 3 h behind Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection99%The first flight arrived more than 159 minutes late on 1% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 24m layover.
Arrives on time79%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (99%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (80%).
Total trip12h 39mPHX 07:20 to OGG 16:59, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.