tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Medford via Seattle: arrives on time 54%

  1. 07:20 PHX → 10:29 SEA
    AS 645 · Alaska · 3h 09m · 85% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 51m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 11:20 SEA → 12:50 MFR
    AS 3088 · Alaska, flown by SkyWest · 1h 30m · 75% on time, 1.9% cancelled

Total trip 5h 30m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection74%The first flight arrived more than 6 minutes late on 26% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 51m layover.
Arrives on time54%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (74%) × second flight not cancelled (1.9% are) and within 15 minutes (75%).
Total trip5h 30mPHX 07:20 to MFR 12:50, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.