tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Ontario → Newark via Seattle: arrives on time 44%

  1. 12:04 ONT → 14:44 SEA
    AS 654 · Alaska · 2h 40m · 90% on time, 3.9% cancelled
  2. 54m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:38 SEA → 23:59 EWR
    AS 263 · Alaska · 5h 21m · 54% on time, 2.0% cancelled

Total trip 8h 55m, scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 3 h ahead of Ontario). Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection86%The first flight arrived more than 9 minutes late on 14% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 54m layover.
Arrives on time44%First flight not cancelled (3.9% are) × connection made (86%) × second flight not cancelled (2.0% are) and within 15 minutes (54%).
Total trip8h 55mONT 12:04 to EWR 23:59, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.