tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Francisco → Dulles via Seattle: arrives on time 77%

  1. 10:18 SFO → 12:27 SEA
    AS 656 · Alaska · 2h 09m · 57% on time, 3.4% cancelled
  2. 3h 34m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 16:01 SEA → 23:59 IAD
    AS 406 · Alaska · 4h 58m · 81% on time, 0.7% cancelled

Total trip 10h 41m, scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 3 h ahead of San Francisco). Times are local. Both flew on 44 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection99%The first flight arrived more than 169 minutes late on 1% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 34m layover.
Arrives on time77%First flight not cancelled (3.4% are) × connection made (99%) × second flight not cancelled (0.7% are) and within 15 minutes (81%).
Total trip10h 41mSFO 10:18 to IAD 23:59, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.