tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Francisco → Kansas City via Seattle: arrives on time 46%

  1. 10:18 SFO → 12:27 SEA
    AS 656 · Alaska · 2h 09m · 57% on time, 3.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 03m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 13:30 SEA → 19:01 MCI
    AS 497 · Alaska · 3h 31m · 81% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 43m, scheduled departure to arrival (Kansas City is 2 h ahead of San Francisco). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection59%The first flight arrived more than 18 minutes late on 41% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 03m layover.
Arrives on time46%First flight not cancelled (3.4% are) × connection made (59%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (81%).
Total trip6h 43mSFO 10:18 to MCI 19:01, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.