tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Francisco → Ontario via Seattle: arrives on time 35%

  1. 10:18 SFO → 12:27 SEA
    AS 656 · Alaska · 2h 09m · 57% on time, 3.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 23m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 13:50 SEA → 16:30 ONT
    AS 571 · Alaska · 2h 40m · 52% on time, 2.2% cancelled

Total trip 6h 12m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 45 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection71%The first flight arrived more than 38 minutes late on 29% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 23m layover.
Arrives on time35%First flight not cancelled (3.4% are) × connection made (71%) × second flight not cancelled (2.2% are) and within 15 minutes (52%).
Total trip6h 12mSFO 10:18 to ONT 16:30, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.