tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Francisco → Missoula via Seattle: arrives on time 50%

  1. 10:18 SFO → 12:27 SEA
    AS 656 · Alaska · 2h 09m · 57% on time, 3.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 11m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 13:38 SEA → 16:09 MSO
    AS 697 · Alaska · 1h 31m · 82% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 51m, scheduled departure to arrival (Missoula is 1 h ahead of San Francisco). Times are local. Both flew on 45 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection62%The first flight arrived more than 26 minutes late on 38% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 11m layover.
Arrives on time50%First flight not cancelled (3.4% are) × connection made (62%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (82%).
Total trip4h 51mSFO 10:18 to MSO 16:09, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.