tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Francisco → Honolulu via Seattle: arrives on time 29%

  1. 10:18 SFO → 12:27 SEA
    AS 656 · Alaska · 2h 09m · 57% on time, 3.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 03m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 13:30 SEA → 16:34 HNL
    AS 899 · Alaska · 6h 04m · 53% on time, 2.9% cancelled

Total trip 9h 16m, scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 3 h behind San Francisco). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection59%The first flight arrived more than 18 minutes late on 41% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 03m layover.
Arrives on time29%First flight not cancelled (3.4% are) × connection made (59%) × second flight not cancelled (2.9% are) and within 15 minutes (53%).
Total trip9h 16mSFO 10:18 to HNL 16:34, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.