tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Francisco → Sacramento via Seattle: arrives on time 44%

  1. 07:03 SFO → 09:13 SEA
    AS 68 · Alaska · 2h 10m · 87% on time, 0.7% cancelled
  2. 48m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:01 SEA → 12:01 SMF
    AS 1380 · Alaska · 2h 00m · 65% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 58m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection69%The first flight arrived more than 3 minutes late on 31% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 48m layover.
Arrives on time44%First flight not cancelled (0.7% are) × connection made (69%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (65%).
Total trip4h 58mSFO 07:03 to SMF 12:01, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.