tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Francisco → San Diego via Seattle: arrives on time 45%

  1. 07:03 SFO → 09:13 SEA
    AS 68 · Alaska · 2h 10m · 87% on time, 0.7% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:03 SEA → 13:01 SAN
    AS 467 · Alaska · 2h 58m · 63% on time, 1.9% cancelled

Total trip 5h 58m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection73%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 27% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time45%First flight not cancelled (0.7% are) × connection made (73%) × second flight not cancelled (1.9% are) and within 15 minutes (63%).
Total trip5h 58mSFO 07:03 to SAN 13:01, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.