tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Sacramento → San Diego via Seattle: arrives on time 37%

  1. 17:08 SMF → 19:07 SEA
    AS 683 · Alaska · 1h 59m · 60% on time, 2.7% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:07 SEA → 23:03 SAN
    AS 1398 · Alaska · 2h 56m · 64% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 55m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 33 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection60%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 40% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time37%First flight not cancelled (2.7% are) × connection made (60%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (64%).
Total trip5h 55mSMF 17:08 to SAN 23:03, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.