tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Sacramento → Newark via Seattle: arrives on time 81%

  1. 17:08 SMF → 19:07 SEA
    AS 683 · Alaska · 1h 59m · 60% on time, 2.7% cancelled
  2. 3h 33m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:40 SEA → 06:59 EWR +1 day
    AS 314 · Alaska · 5h 19m · 86% on time, 0.5% cancelled

Total trip 10h 51m, scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 3 h ahead of Sacramento). Times are local. Both flew on 37 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection97%The first flight arrived more than 168 minutes late on 3% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 33m layover.
Arrives on time81%First flight not cancelled (2.7% are) × connection made (97%) × second flight not cancelled (0.5% are) and within 15 minutes (86%).
Total trip10h 51mSMF 17:08 to EWR 06:59, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.