tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Sacramento → Phoenix via Seattle: arrives on time 25%

  1. 17:08 SMF → 19:07 SEA
    AS 683 · Alaska · 1h 59m · 60% on time, 2.7% cancelled
  2. 48m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:55 SEA → 22:53 PHX
    AS 632 · Alaska · 2h 58m · 74% on time, 0.3% cancelled

Total trip 5h 45m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 37 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection35%The first flight arrived more than 3 minutes late on 65% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 48m layover.
Arrives on time25%First flight not cancelled (2.7% are) × connection made (35%) × second flight not cancelled (0.3% are) and within 15 minutes (74%).
Total trip5h 45mSMF 17:08 to PHX 22:53, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.