tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Sacramento → Las Vegas via Seattle: arrives on time 61%

  1. 17:08 SMF → 19:07 SEA
    AS 683 · Alaska · 1h 59m · 60% on time, 2.7% cancelled
  2. 1h 08m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:15 SEA → 22:55 LAS
    AS 704 · Alaska · 2h 40m · 89% on time, 2.1% cancelled

Total trip 5h 47m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 37 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection71%The first flight arrived more than 23 minutes late on 29% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 08m layover.
Arrives on time61%First flight not cancelled (2.7% are) × connection made (71%) × second flight not cancelled (2.1% are) and within 15 minutes (89%).
Total trip5h 47mSMF 17:08 to LAS 22:55, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.