tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Sacramento → Palm Springs via Seattle: arrives on time 23%

  1. 17:08 SMF → 19:07 SEA
    AS 683 · Alaska · 1h 59m · 60% on time, 2.7% cancelled
  2. 48m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:55 SEA → 22:51 PSP
    AS 3214 · Alaska, flown by SkyWest · 2h 56m · 72% on time, 3.8% cancelled

Total trip 5h 43m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 37 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection35%The first flight arrived more than 3 minutes late on 65% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 48m layover.
Arrives on time23%First flight not cancelled (2.7% are) × connection made (35%) × second flight not cancelled (3.8% are) and within 15 minutes (72%).
Total trip5h 43mSMF 17:08 to PSP 22:51, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.