tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Seattle → Reno via Portland: arrives on time 60%

  1. 15:55 SEA → 16:55 PDX
    AS 686 · Alaska · 1h 00m · 73% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Portland (PDX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:55 PDX → 19:31 RNO
    AS 1616 · Alaska · 1h 36m · 83% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 3h 36m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection73%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 27% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time60%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (73%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (83%).
Total trip3h 36mSEA 15:55 to RNO 19:31, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.