tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Seattle → Kahului via Portland: arrives on time 55%

  1. 15:55 SEA → 16:55 PDX
    AS 686 · Alaska · 1h 00m · 73% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Portland (PDX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:45 PDX → 20:40 OGG
    AS 353 · Alaska · 5h 55m · 89% on time, 0.3% cancelled

Total trip 7h 45m, scheduled departure to arrival (Kahului is 3 h behind Seattle). Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection62%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 38% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time55%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (62%) × second flight not cancelled (0.3% are) and within 15 minutes (89%).
Total trip7h 45mSEA 15:55 to OGG 20:40, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.