tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Seattle → Santa Barbara via Portland: arrives on time 58%

  1. 15:55 SEA → 16:55 PDX
    AS 686 · Alaska · 1h 00m · 73% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 53m layover in Portland (PDX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:48 PDX → 20:04 SBA
    AS 2029 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 2h 16m · 91% on time, 1.1% cancelled

Total trip 4h 09m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection65%The first flight arrived more than 8 minutes late on 35% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 53m layover.
Arrives on time58%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (65%) × second flight not cancelled (1.1% are) and within 15 minutes (91%).
Total trip4h 09mSEA 15:55 to SBA 20:04, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.