tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Las Vegas → Kailua/Kona via Seattle: arrives on time 52%

  1. 15:12 LAS → 17:57 SEA
    AS 698 · Alaska · 2h 45m · 69% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 02m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:59 SEA → 22:10 KOA
    AS 200 · Alaska · 6h 11m · 76% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 9h 58m, scheduled departure to arrival (Kailua/Kona is 3 h behind Las Vegas). Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection69%The first flight arrived more than 17 minutes late on 31% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 02m layover.
Arrives on time52%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (69%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (76%).
Total trip9h 58mLAS 15:12 to KOA 22:10, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.