tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Oakland → New York via Seattle: arrives on time 58%

  1. 10:22 OAK → 12:26 SEA
    AS 705 · Alaska · 2h 04m · 89% on time, 2.1% cancelled
  2. 1h 36m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 14:02 SEA → 22:29 JFK
    AS 16 · Alaska · 5h 27m · 63% on time, 2.7% cancelled

Total trip 9h 07m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Oakland). Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection97%The first flight arrived more than 51 minutes late on 3% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 36m layover.
Arrives on time58%First flight not cancelled (2.1% are) × connection made (97%) × second flight not cancelled (2.7% are) and within 15 minutes (63%).
Total trip9h 07mOAK 10:22 to JFK 22:29, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.