tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Oakland → Santa Barbara via Seattle: arrives on time 75%

  1. 10:22 OAK → 12:26 SEA
    AS 705 · Alaska · 2h 04m · 89% on time, 2.1% cancelled
  2. 3h 40m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 16:06 SEA → 18:38 SBA
    AS 400 · Alaska · 2h 32m · 76% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 8h 16m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection100%The first flight arrived more than 175 minutes late on <1% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 40m layover.
Arrives on time75%First flight not cancelled (2.1% are) × connection made (100%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (76%).
Total trip8h 16mOAK 10:22 to SBA 18:38, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.