tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Fairbanks via Seattle: arrives on time 74%

  1. 06:00 ORD → 08:38 SEA
    AS 715 · Alaska · 4h 38m · 81% on time, 0.8% cancelled
  2. 3h 22m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 12:00 SEA → 14:55 FAI
    AS 1507 · Alaska · 3h 55m · 75% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 11h 55m, scheduled departure to arrival (Fairbanks is 3 h behind Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection99%The first flight arrived more than 157 minutes late on 1% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 22m layover.
Arrives on time74%First flight not cancelled (0.8% are) × connection made (99%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (75%).
Total trip11h 55mORD 06:00 to FAI 14:55, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.