tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Fairbanks via Seattle: arrives on time 69%

  1. 06:00 ORD → 08:38 SEA
    AS 715 · Alaska · 4h 38m · 81% on time, 0.8% cancelled
  2. 1h 15m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 09:53 SEA → 12:44 FAI
    AS 1552 · Alaska · 3h 51m · 78% on time, 1.9% cancelled

Total trip 9h 44m, scheduled departure to arrival (Fairbanks is 3 h behind Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection92%The first flight arrived more than 30 minutes late on 8% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 15m layover.
Arrives on time69%First flight not cancelled (0.8% are) × connection made (92%) × second flight not cancelled (1.9% are) and within 15 minutes (78%).
Total trip9h 44mORD 06:00 to FAI 12:44, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.