tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Reno via Seattle: arrives on time 82%

  1. 06:00 ORD → 08:38 SEA
    AS 715 · Alaska · 4h 38m · 81% on time, 0.8% cancelled
  2. 3h 15m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 11:53 SEA → 13:50 RNO
    AS 273 · Alaska · 1h 57m · 84% on time, 0.6% cancelled

Total trip 9h 50m, scheduled departure to arrival (Reno is 2 h behind Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection99%The first flight arrived more than 150 minutes late on 1% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 15m layover.
Arrives on time82%First flight not cancelled (0.8% are) × connection made (99%) × second flight not cancelled (0.6% are) and within 15 minutes (84%).
Total trip9h 50mORD 06:00 to RNO 13:50, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.