tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Salt Lake City → New York via Seattle: arrives on time 54%

  1. 20:46 SLC → 22:12 SEA
    AS 719 · Alaska · 2h 26m · 65% on time, 2.5% cancelled
  2. 1h 03m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 23:15 SEA → 07:38 JFK +1 day
    AS 22 · Alaska · 5h 23m · 81% on time, 0.9% cancelled

Total trip 8h 52m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 2 h ahead of Salt Lake City). Times are local. Both flew on 30 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection69%The first flight arrived more than 18 minutes late on 31% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 03m layover.
Arrives on time54%First flight not cancelled (2.5% are) × connection made (69%) × second flight not cancelled (0.9% are) and within 15 minutes (81%).
Total trip8h 52mSLC 20:46 to JFK 07:38, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.