tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Seattle → Santa Rosa via Las Vegas: arrives on time 65%

  1. 11:31 SEA → 14:16 LAS
    AS 738 · Alaska · 2h 45m · 80% on time, 0.3% cancelled
  2. 1h 08m layover in Las Vegas (LAS) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:24 LAS → 17:16 STS
    AS 2458 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 1h 52m · 80% on time, 3.8% cancelled

Total trip 5h 45m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection85%The first flight arrived more than 23 minutes late on 15% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 08m layover.
Arrives on time65%First flight not cancelled (0.3% are) × connection made (85%) × second flight not cancelled (3.8% are) and within 15 minutes (80%).
Total trip5h 45mSEA 11:31 to STS 17:16, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.