tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Francisco → Bozeman via Seattle: arrives on time 43%

  1. 17:38 SFO → 19:47 SEA
    AS 758 · Alaska · 2h 09m · 73% on time, 0.4% cancelled
  2. 53m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:40 SEA → 23:19 BZN
    AS 458 · Alaska · 1h 39m · 67% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 41m, scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 1 h ahead of San Francisco). Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection63%The first flight arrived more than 8 minutes late on 37% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 53m layover.
Arrives on time43%First flight not cancelled (0.4% are) × connection made (63%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (67%).
Total trip4h 41mSFO 17:38 to BZN 23:19, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.