tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Santa Ana → New York via Seattle: arrives on time 79%

  1. 17:32 SNA → 20:20 SEA
    AS 774 · Alaska · 2h 48m · 86% on time, 0.5% cancelled
  2. 2h 55m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 23:15 SEA → 07:38 JFK +1 day
    AS 22 · Alaska · 5h 23m · 81% on time, 0.9% cancelled

Total trip 11h 06m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection99%The first flight arrived more than 130 minutes late on 1% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 55m layover.
Arrives on time79%First flight not cancelled (0.5% are) × connection made (99%) × second flight not cancelled (0.9% are) and within 15 minutes (81%).
Total trip11h 06mSNA 17:32 to JFK 07:38, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.