tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Santa Ana → Dulles via Seattle: arrives on time 85%

  1. 17:32 SNA → 20:20 SEA
    AS 774 · Alaska · 2h 48m · 86% on time, 0.5% cancelled
  2. 3h 00m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 23:20 SEA → 07:22 IAD +1 day
    UA 264 · United · 5h 02m · 91% on time, 4.5% cancelled

Total trip 10h 50m, scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Times are local. Both flew on 41 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection99%The first flight arrived more than 90 minutes late on 1% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 3h 00m layover.
Arrives on time85%First flight not cancelled (0.5% are) × connection made (99%) × second flight not cancelled (4.5% are) and within 15 minutes (91%).
Total trip10h 50mSNA 17:32 to IAD 07:22, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.